3X to 5X
No, I am not talking about loupes. It's something else.
I have confronted and fired a surprising number of dishonest employees; both in person or by video.
Most employees immediately and vigorously deny the allegations - then leave in a hurry.
A few have made verbal threats at the dentist on the way out the door.
"You're going down too buddy" (waving finger at dentist)
"When I tell everyone what you're really like, you won't have any patients left"
About 1 in 5 have confessed - sort of.
When asked if they knew how much money they stole; the answers varied.
"It can't be more than $9,000"
"I think it is a little over $20,000"
"Please don't call the police, I'll pay it back"
By the time I completed those audits, the total thefts were 3X to 5X more than what the perpetrators "thought" they stole.
They also downplayed the length of their crime by the same multipliers
"A few months" = 9 to 15 months
"About a year" = 3 to 5 years
This information won't help you prevent fraud, but...
If you ever confront an employee for stealing and they admit to "a few hundred" or "maybe a couple thousand"
Or they say, I only started stealing last month, you can multiply that amount by 10X, 20X or more.
Because your employee will tell bigger lies to you than me.
They already had enough confidence to steal, so telling you a bigger lie is easy.